Updating The Watchlist

I’m not sure about the rest of you, but I have found myself with an abundance of time on my hands. I have spent the last couple of months quarantined to the house and much of my normal business work has been put on hold. I am not married and don’t have any kids, so let’s just say I have nothing but time. Watching Netflix and playing video games can only get me so far, so I figured I should at least be somewhat productive.

I have dedicated at least an hour or two every day to investment research. Some days I have done far more than that, while others have gone completely wasted. What I can I say? I am human. Whether it is running screens, glancing through company financial statements, or reading 10Ks and quarterly transcripts, I have found the last couple of months to be the perfect time to learn.

Now is also an opportune time to update my company watchlist. I’m not sure what the next few months or even years will hold, but I am trying to get myself ready. Recently many of us tuned in to watch the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting. Berkshire is now sitting on a record level of cash, over $130 billion. Buffett remarked that he wants to be prepared for any financial situation. Things could return to normal in a matter of weeks, but the Covid-19 numbers could spike and businesses could be forced to close for months further. If that should happen, economic calamity will ensue and I would assume that markets will drop into free fall. I want to have a list of companies ready to go for such a buying opportunity. I want to emphasize that this is not a prediction, but rather I am doing my best boy scout impersonation by being prepared.

The first companies on a watch list should always be ones you already own. These are companies you have studied and had the conviction to buy. Many variables have likely changed since the initial purchase, but that’s where research should begin. Check one by one and see how the businesses have performed. Have revenues and profits risen or fallen in recent quarters? Has their balance sheet held up, or have they taken on additional debt? Think into the future and consider where the obstacles might lie and whether they are still in a position to grow. Finally, when you have a good grasp on the business, look at the price. If the business scenario looks bright and the stock price is below your purchase price, that business is likely a good candidate for buying more. Conversely, if business conditions appear dour and the stock price has risen, you have a good indicator that it may be time to sell.

Aside from companies I have already invested in, I have compiled a short list of companies I am watching closely:

Comcast (CMCSA)- Look we all know them and if you are anything like me, you probably hate them. They may have terrible customer service, but that doesn’t change the fact that they are a phenomenal business. The cord cutting revolution was probably overblown, but it has been interesting to follow. As less people order cable, Comcast has simply raised prices on internet services. They are essentially an unregulated monopoly on a vital product. They are a cash machine, churning out a whopping 13 or 14 billion dollars of free cash in 2019 depending on how exactly how you measure it.

After a rather steep decline in the stock’s price, my interest has been piqued. Let’s be conservative and use the lower number 13. Comcast now trades at 12.5x 2019 FCF, a very reasonable number. Much like Disney, we know the business will be adversely affected by the virus, they have been forced to close all Universal theme parks, a big money maker for the company, that comes along with high fixed costs. My real hesitancy however is the amount of debt the company holds on their balance sheet. Over 100 billion in debt and 180 billion in total liabilities. I need to dig in more before I would feel comfortable making an investment.

Copart (CPRT)- I just finished reading Junk to Gold: From Salvage to the World’s Largest Online Auto Auction, the story of Willis Johnson, founder of Copart. I encourage you all to pick up a copy, I thought it was a great short read. The book depicted his rise from humble beginnings to Copart’s domination of the auto salvage business. What started as just a tiny scrap yard has turned into the world’s largest auto auction business. It is a classic rags to riches story. Johnson is a tremendous entrepreneur and has a penchant for finding opportunities to make money in any situation.

Today, the company sits in a great position. Their financials look better every single year. In my opinion they are probably a bit expensive at current prices, but Copart will remain on my radar. They have a solid balance sheet and produce a fair amount of free cash. They reinvest that cash back into the business, which has allowed them to grow immensely.

Intel (INTC)- Intel is probably the company I am most interested at the current moment. It is a company you have probably all heard of, but may not actually know what they do. I understood what they did at a cursory level, but never did a deep dive until this quarantine began. I thought the semiconductor industry would be too difficult to understand, so I just skipped over it entirely. After taking a brief look through their financials however, I couldn’t push it off any longer.

Intel is the world’s largest designer and manufacturer of semiconductor chips used in virtually all computing equipment. Though they are known for their microprocessors, they design chips for a range of products from mobile phones to the self driving car. I admittedly will never understand the technical minutia of the industry, but I think I can at least understand the competitive dynamics and why Intel has been so successful.

Intel is the gorilla in the fight. With a market cap of around 260 billion and sales of over 70 billion in 2019, Intel is the major player in the US. To put that in context, their main American competitors, AMD and NVIDIA had sales of 6.7 billion and 10.9 billion respectively. In 2019 alone, Intel spent 13.3 billion on R&D and another 16.2 billion on CapEx. That means they spent just under 30 billion bettering their competitive advantage, all while spitting out over 15 billion in free cash flow. AMD and NVDA have found footholds in successful niches, but catching up to Intel in the overall market is incredibly tough. Intel just has so many more resources at their disposal. The company actually faces much tougher competition from companies outside the US. Samsung and TSMC are great companies in their own rights, but do somewhat different things. I’m not going to go too deep into this today, but know I am watching Intel very closely for now.

Medifast (MED)- As someone who was born and raised in Baltimore, I have a sweet spot for any local company. Medifast is one of the few public companies still located within city borders, so I like to check in on them. With a renewed focus, Medifast has grown quickly these last few years. Revenue has grown over 2.5x over the last 5 years. Their financials look very strong, the company holds zero dollars of debt on their balance sheet. Any company able to grow quickly without having to take on a single dollar of debt is impressive in my book.

I am a little cautious about investing in this company however. I wouldn’t go as far as calling Medifast a pyramid scheme, but at first glance I would say they have pyramid like tendencies. Most of Medifast’s growth has come from the Optavia brand. Optavia is a multi level marketing company selling weight loss products. Their model works through having members sign up as coaches, who then make money selling products to other members. Perhaps this is all just a clever marketing scheme, but it sounds a bit fishy to me. Unless I can understand what differentiates Optavia from a pyramid scheme, I’ll be staying away.

As always, thank you all for taking the time to read! I hope you take some time and update your watchlist. If you find any companies I might be interested in, please send them my way. You can follow me on Twitter @TheGarpInvestor.

Q1 Update

Well that was a doozy! We just finished the quarter in what has easily been the scariest investing environment I have ever faced. In fact, it has probably been the most frightening time for any investor, young or old. Unfortunately, the situation we all face isn’t close to being over. I don’t know how long this will last, nor do I know how devastating the consequences will be. The best we can do is hold strong and remain ever vigilant waiting ready for opportunities.

As for my own investing performance… it has been rather putrid. I have scolded myself many times in the last few weeks for not keeping more cash on the sidelines. This was a rookie mistake and I own up to it. I just personally hate sitting on cash, I enjoy owning partial shares of some of the world’s greatest businesses. Cash can’t compound, it sits idly losing value due to inflation. It does however provide a lifeline should an opportunity come knocking. If there is no cash available, you either have to watch it go by or tap into a margin balance, which I personally refuse to do.

While the future looks grim, now is not the time to panic. These kinds of events are what separate novices from those who outperform. This crisis will shuffle money from the know nothing investor, to those who have done their homework. It will expose those who made use of excess amounts of leverage and those who bet on companies that lack durable competitive advantages. As Warren Buffett put it “You don’t know who’s swimming naked until the tide pulls in.” Everyone looks great during a bull market, it is only when the bear roars that the score is settled. This can be applied not only to investors, but to companies as well. Some are prepared for these kinds of situations and can prosper, others will be forced into bankruptcy.

For that reason, I try and invest into companies that perform well in all economic conditions, feast or famine. A strong balance sheet is imperative. It is hard to go broke if you don’t owe any money. Cash is king and I prefer companies acting like a dragon sitting on a hoard of gold, protecting that cash at all costs. You can bet a company such as Berkshire Hathaway won’t be filing chapter 11 and instead will be using this occurrence as an entry point into outstanding businesses.

Q1 Performance

As of 4/1/2020, my 10K portfolio stood at $9,700.23. When I started on 8/19/18, the SPY had a price of $285.06 and my account started with $10,000. As of 4/1/2020 the SPY had a price of $257.75. The SPY has also given out $8.44 in dividends since I started tracking, so I have accounted for that as well.

10K Return(1) SPY Return(2) Difference(1-2)

2018(8/19-12/31) (13.95) (13.71) (.24)

2019 37.33 32.6 4.73

2020(1/1-3/31) (17.91) (19.92) 2.01

Since Inception(8/19/18) (2.99) (6.62) 3.63

As you can see, I have actually beaten the S&P since the inception of this account, albeit I have done so while still losing money. I therefore find no sense of accomplishment in this feat. If the S&P was to fall 50% over a 10 year period while my own account only fell by 35%, I’m not going to be happy. The ultimate point is to make money, not just outperform an index.

Current Portfolio

Here is an updated look at my portfolio as of 3/31/20

Screenshot 2020-04-07 at 5.50.41 PM

We can see I have $9,652.61 invested and have an additional $47.62 in cash. I made some changes to my portfolio this quarter, time will tell if any of these were good ideas.

Buys

CNSWF- I invested into Constellation Software, which has immediately become my largest holding. The company acquires small companies that provide vertical market software to niche customers such as dentists, fitness centers and hospitals. They serve customers in virtually every market you can think of. They own hundreds of businesses and have extremely high customer retention. Constellation is a company I have followed for years and given a large fall, I became a happy buyer. Of course right after purchasing, the stock continued to plummet. I could have gotten a much better price, so be it. They are run by Mark Leonard, a brilliant capital allocator with an amazing beard. I have great confidence holding this company indefinitely.

HEI.A- I also bought shares of Heico corporation. They have a dual class structure, so I bought into the A shares, seeing that they traded at a discount to the standard shares. They offer only 1/10th the voting power, but given how small a position I hold, I find this to be immaterial. Heico is a niche supplier of airplane parts. They are a fantastic company that has fallen greatly due to the decimation of the travel market. While I was initially thrilled by the drop in price, I may have acted in haste, not fully appreciating how long the impact of the virus will last. I will continue to monitor the situation, but am considering getting out. I don’t like quick in and outs, but sometimes you can get lured in on false hope. The travel market might be impacted for years to come, I’m hoping that is not the case but who knows at this point. If people aren’t flying, planes won’t need new or replacement parts. Even a great business with a pristine balance sheet can get into trouble if sales fall off a cliff for years.

Sell

BKNG- For the very reason I am considering selling out of Heico, I have already sold out of my position in Booking Holdings. They are a fabulous company, but the impact of the virus on their business is immense. They make their money selling hotel rooms, car rentals and airline tickets. It is a brilliant business model, they take on none of the heavy lifting and merely act as an agent. As long as this pandemic lasts however, their entire business has essentially been cut to 0. They have a strong balance sheet and smart management, so I have no doubt they will weather the storm. I just can’t predict how this will impact their bottom line and for how long. I wouldn’t be surprised if I one day get back into the company. I’m not comfortable holding them right now, but that won’t always be the case.

Hold???

LUV- I haven’t made a decision on Southwest yet. Just like the last two companies I discussed, Southwest’s business has been crushed by this pandemic. I am loath to get out of an industry leader that is trading at a deep discount to prices seen just a few months ago, but my hands might be tied. The company just announced they are cutting 50% of flights through the end of June. Don’t be surprised if they are forced to cut flights deep into the summer or longer. Will Southwest need to be a part of the government bailout? Maybe, I honestly don’t know and I’m also not sure what kind of stipulations will come as part of such an agreement. No dividends or stock buybacks? That would really impact the investment potential. I’m weighing all these variables, but might pull the trigger soon and sell. I also notice I have allocated too heavily into the travel industry. I did not foresee this kind of crisis impacting so many of the companies I invested in, but I have to play the hand that is dealt. I need to make sure I diversify better so one industry can’t bring me down.

As always, thank you all for reading! This is a strange and difficult time. I invest to make money, not to watch it wash away. Let’s hope the rest of 2020 sees a return to normal and we can all start leaving our houses again. You can follow me on Twitter @TheGarpInvestor.

Goodbye Summer (Q3 Update)

Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. Summer came and went in the blink of an eye. Labor day weekend is now well behind us and so are any hopes I once had of not gaining a good 15 lbs over the Summer. A couple of trips and way too many burgers and beers are probably the primary culprits. I hope you all got to enjoy the summer heat as much as I did.

September however brings a new level of excitement. Kids are back in school and if they are forced to learn, we should be as well. We are all mere students of the game and therefore we need to work on our investing practice. A day doesn’t go by where you cannot learn something, so seize hold of the opportunity. A little bit of knowledge every day, will turn into a mountain of information over a lifetime. With that out of the way, let’s check in and see how I did this quarter.

Q3 Performance

As of 9/1/2019, my 10K portfolio stood at $11,088.12. When I started on 8/19/18, the SPY had a price of $285.06. As of 9/1/19 the SPY closed at $292.37(it’s actually had quite a run up since.)

Return(1) SPY Return(2) Difference(1-2)

Portfolio value $11,088.12: 10.88 2.56 8.32

With dividends reinvested into the SPY their returns would look a bit more like this.

Return(1) SPY Return(2) Difference(1-2)

Portfolio value $11,088.12: 10.88 4.42 6.46

I have to say that I am more than satisfied with my results thus far. I have cut a few of my losers and held tight onto my winners. I like to let my winners ride and let compounding do the work. Some might be overvalued and others are hopefully undervalued. In the long run, stocks will follow suit with growth in intrinsic value. I feel good about the companies I’m invested in and their prospects for the future. That being said, I hold onto almost $1,700 in cash. I am finding it hard to find deals I am comfortable with in the current environment. That doesn’t mean the search is over, just means I have to turn over more stones. One will appear and I will be ready to put my remaining capital to work.

Taxes

One topic I don’t see talked about nearly enough is the effect of taxes on investment returns. So often I hear analysts talk about a stock hitting their price target, meaning it is now a sell. Too often, these recommendations fail to mention taxes. Should you have a good gain, the second you initiate that sale, your gain is now realized. You will now be responsible for the taxes. Let’s just look at a simple example. Say you bought company A at $100. You made a great pick and after 6 months, the stock has now doubled to $200. Obviously you have made a fantastic investment, the question is what do next? If you sell out entirely, you will have a gain of $100 and it will be considered a short term capital gain, as you have not held it for longer than a year. It will be taxed at your normal income tax bracket. As of now, these taxes will fall somewhere between 10% and 37%. Let’s just assume a middle tax bracket of 24%.

On the $100 gain you will have to pay $24, leaving you with $176 to work with. Additionally, depending on where you live, you will owe state and local tax. Here in Baltimore County, Maryland you owe 5.75% to the state and 2.83% to the county. This lops off another $8.58, bringing that initial $200 down to $167.42.

The variables are of course ever changing. Should the characteristics of company A fail to live up to expectations or should your investment thesis no longer hold true, it very well might be a good time to sell out and switch companies. The important lesson is to take the effects of taxes into consideration and make an apples to apples comparison. In this example it is not $200 in Company A vs $200 in Company B, but instead $200 in Company A vs $167.42 in Company B. With that in mind, selling out of Company A might not be as enticing.

As always, thank you for reading. Be sure to subscribe and follow me on Twitter @Thegarpinvestor. Feel free to share the post, thanks!

Happy New Year!

I hope everyone had a happy new year and took some time to celebrate! For us investors these past few months haven’t been too wonderful, so finding reasons to celebrate is always nice. As anyone following the market knows, we have seen a precipitous drop in prices. Everything from tech stocks to blue chips have seen a significant fall. From the market highs in October, prices now sit about 20% lower. This has given us a reminder that prices often fall much faster than they rise. Watching your portfolio drop by multiple percentage points day after day can truly leave you breathless. Volatility however is a price we must pay for satisfactory results.

This drop has certainly not left me unscathed. My personal accounts have taken a beating and my 10K portfolio now sits just around $9,000.00. I clearly chose the exact wrong time to start a portfolio. I made a rookie mistake and rushed into my investments, instead of letting ripe opportunities arise. Let it be known that I am far from a perfect investor. This is merely one mistake of the many I am sure to make. I only hope that in the aggregate, my winners will outshine my losers and overall my portfolio will beat the market in the long term.

Let me make it clear, no one likes losing money. I hate losing money as much as anyone, probably even more than most. It pains me to watch my hard earned money wash away. I could have had a lot more fun blowing $1,000.00 than losing it in stocks, but that is the risk us investors take. In the short run anything could happen. There are infinite possibilities, but we play a game of probability. In the long run, measured over many years not days or even months the market has grown and grown enormously. I therefore choose to let the numbers dictate my investing philosophy. Pick great companies and allow time and compounding to increase my wealth.

The ability to control your emotions is probably the most important attribute an investor can have. What is most important is not intelligence, nor financial modeling, but the ability to remain calm and think rationally. Never one to mince his words, Charlie Munger stated “A lot of people with high IQs are terrible investors because they’ve got terrible temperaments.” The stomach is often what makes or breaks an investor, not the brain.

Market volatility also happens to provide opportunities to buy at a discount. If you have a long investing horizon, you should actually root for the market to fall in the short term. It allows you to accumulate shares of great companies at lower prices, that in 20-30 years will be worth far more. If you are a net buyer of stocks, falling prices are your friend not your enemy. Another thing to consider is that not only can you buy stocks at cheaper prices, so too can the companies you invest in. If you invest into companies with high free cash flow, they can use that cash to buyback their own stock or even make investments into other companies at reduced prices.

I used this drop in the market to enter two more positions and effectively fully commit my entire 10K portfolio. I have $150 leftover that I’m saving to use on a rainy day. Over time I will also accumulate money in the form of dividends and I’m sure there will be some turnover in the portfolio as certain companies do not perform according to my investment thesis. Therefore, I doubt these are the final decisions I make.

APH- I purchased 9 shares of Amphenol at $82.97 for a total of $746.73. Amphenol is a neat company which sells fiber optic connectors and other such products to all kinds of industries ranging from hospitals to aerospace. They grow their earnings each and every year and they generate lots of free cash flow. They sit around a 20 P/E which is still on the rather high end, but at a level I am comfortable with given the quality of the business.

MKL- I purchased 1 share of Markel for $1,029.96. Often referred to as a baby Berkshire, I am happy to be an owner of such a high caliber business. Much like Berkshire, Markel operates primarily as a specialty insurer and then reinvests the float into all kinds of other vehicles. A company of this magnitude rarely goes on sale, but such an occasion recently occurred. One of the small subsidiaries they own got in trouble with regulators for misrepresentation of loss reserves. I believe this is a one time small issue, and not endemic of the entire company. This caused a great drop in price, that put Markel under 1.5X Price/Book value. The company almost never trades at such a level, so I pulled the trigger on a company I will be happy to own forever.

As always, thanks for reading! Questions are encouraged and feel free to comment how your portfolio has performed. Remember to follow along and join the email list on the side.

6 GARP Investors to Follow

Tis’ the season and I hope everyone is enjoying this time of year. I just finished celebrating Hanukkah and Christmas is only a couple short weeks away. With the new year just around the corner, I thought I’d put together a list of some great investors you all should have on your radar. I try and soak up as much wisdom as possible and these investors are dripping with juicy nuggets of information. This list ranges from bloggers to CEO’s of Fortune 500 companies, running the entire gamut. Knowledge can be gained from all kinds of different sources. This is far from a complete list, but just a few names you all should familiarize yourselves with.

Francois Rochon- First on our list is Canadian investor Francois Rochon. Rochon started his investment firm, Giverny Capital, over 20 years ago. Unfortunately, I had never heard of him until earlier this year. To make up for this delay, I devoured all of his annual reports in a single day. He is a classic GARP investor, focusing far more on the quality of a business than on the price of a stock on any given day. He is more concerned with how the earnings of a company are increasing each and every year. His returns are admirable, averaging 15.7% since 1993 as compared to the index result of 9.2%. Over the course of 25 years, this discrepancy has led to magnificent results. I particularly enjoy his writing style, mixing humor and humility. He includes a section every year highlighting his greatest mistakes, something that every investor can surely relate to. My own personal account seems to overlap with his constantly, with companies such as: Markel, Berkshire, Google, Visa and Union Pacific showing up in both. You can see his reports located on his company’s website
2. Pat Dorsey– I was introduced to this famed investor through Patrick O’Shaughnessy’s great podcast The Investor’s Field Guide. Dorsey gained notoriety through being the director of equity research at Morningstar, a well known investment research company. He went on to write a couple of highly regarded books The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing and The Little Book that Builds Wealth, as well as start his own asset management firm. He focuses on companies with strong moats, otherwise known as durable competitive advantages. Due to those advantages, they are able to keep high returns on capital far longer than the average company. In his own words, his strategy can be summarized as “We purchase these businesses at what we believe to be reasonable discounts to a rational assessment of intrinsic value, and we seek to invest in companies with corporate managers who we believe can allocate capital in ways that benefit long-term minority shareholders.” Here is a great compilation of resources he has shared on his Website
Warren Buffett– I would be remiss to make a list of extraordinary investors and exclude the granddaddy of them all. While often thought to be a value investor, I think he can more appropriately be given the categorization of a GARP investor. I probably don’t need to spend much time talking up his accomplishments, you’ve heard them all before. Just know that he is as wise as they come and his lessons are timeless. You can of course read his annual reports, watch his numerous interviews or even go to Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders meeting as I have done myself in the past.
Mark Leonard– Another famous businessperson I am embarrassed to have only found this year is Canadian superstar CEO Mark Leonard. Leonard is the CEO and founder of Constellation Software. While Warren Buffett has famously avoided technology, Leonard has embraced it. Realizing that software companies in niche industries spin off tremendous amounts of cash while only requiring minimal ongoing capital investments, Leonard has created a decentralized juggernaut. Leonard uses the vast amount of free cash to then acquire an ever growing list of niche software companies. His real brilliance was in identifying how strong a moat these companies could have. Think of a dentist or an optometrist. Once they start using a particular software for their office, it becomes incredibly difficult to switch. All of their patient records are stored on that program. In order to switch, all of that data would need to be reentered and staff needed to be retrained on a brand new software. He has taken that premise and bought up companies in hundreds, if not thousands of different industries. You can read his annual letters, going back all the way to 1996 here.
John Huber– I’ve been following this fellow blogger for a number of years at BaseHitInvesting. Not only does he run an incredibly informative blog, he also runs his own fund, Saber Capital Management. In his own words “Our general strategy is to make meaningful investments in high quality, predictable businesses that can be expected to grow intrinsic value at high rates and that are currently available at cheap prices.” I would peg that definition right up the GARP alley. I’ve learned a lot from Mr. Huber over the years, particularly his series on ROIC and compounding. He recently wrote up a new post entitled “Facebook Is Undervalued.” I’ve shared my thoughts on FB previously and the two of us seem to see eye to eye. I look forward to reading more of what he has to say over the years.
Connor Leonard– I was introduced to our final GARP investor of the day through a guest post on Huber’s blog BaseHitInvesting a couple of years ago. Leonard(No relation to Mark as far as I know) runs the public securities portfolio for Investment Management Corporation. IMC is a particularly interesting business case study. On only $50,000 of startup capital, the founders started the restaurant Golden Corral. Due to managerial brilliance and the fixation on cash flow, they have never needed to invest a penny more. With such great cash flow, they have entered into many other business arenas, as well as their public securities division, which is where Leonard fits in. He runs his portfolio in a GARP oriented style. With a focus on moats and capital light compounders he has found great success. I foresee his notoriety in the investment community growing considerably over the years.

As always thank you for reading. I hope you found this post interesting. These are all great investors you can learn a ton from. Subscribe and let me know what you think. Thanks again!

What a Roller Coaster!(3Q Update)

I’d like to start by apologizing for not posting in a while. Due to a combination of work, life, laziness and a sinking market, I’ve found it hard to muster the energy to type up a new post. That of course is not a great excuse and I’d like to get back into posting regularly. Without further ado, let’s get down to business.

Since I last posted, the market has given us all a roller coaster of emotions. Volatility has been extremely high, with markets moving 1, 2 and sometimes even 3% in a single day. October was a rather brutal month, the S&P 500 fell over 10%. The question is, what should we do about it?

While watching your stocks fall is never fun, you have to take a step back and think rationally. Are your companies executing? That is ultimately what is important. A falling price allows a company to buy back shares at a discount, increasing your overall ownership. A falling market also provides a buying opportunity for you. I took advantage of this opportunity and bought shares of three strong companies.

New Purchases

LUV- Southwest Airlines is a leading low cost travel provider. By focusing on providing value to their customers, Southwest has emerged as a dominant player in their field. They simply offer the best value in the business and over time will continue to grow.

Googl- If there is one no brainer company, it is Google. They dominate the world of digital advertising. Online search is one of the highest margin businesses around and competitors can’t seem to steal market share no matter how hard they try. I simply needed to wait for a reasonable price. Thankfully, the market was gracious enough to present me with such an opening.

MSFT- I wasn’t always a believer in Microsoft during the Steve Ballmer era, but Satya Nadella has proven to be the real deal. Microsoft Azure is the fastest growing product in the cloud infrastructure arena. Microsoft is a free cash flow machine, paying a solid dividend and rapidly buying back shares. They are pushing all the right buttons and I’m happy to be an owner.

3rd Quarter Performance

Reminder I started with $10,000 and bench marked against the SPY at 285.06 which as of the closing on 11/13/18 stands at 272.34

%Return(1) SPY Return(2) Difference(1-2)

Portfolio value- $9,275.89 (7.25%) (4.65) (2.6)

So far pretty terrible, I clearly chose an awful time to start this portfolio and even worse my companies have under performed the benchmark. That being said, 1 quarter doesn’t tell a full story. To get a better idea let’s look into how the companies (not their stock prices) have performed this past quarter.

DG- Reported a great quarter. EPS growth of 40.7% YoY and bought back a significant amount of shares.

FB- Top line growth of 33% and remains debt free. Also bought back a significant amount of stock. DAU and MAU both increased, will be an interesting story to follow given all the adversity surrounding the company.

FND- Continues strong growth, adjusted EPS up 41.2% YoY. Opened 7 new stores during the quarter with plans to open many more.

GOOGL- Google put up another amazing quarter. The company is a behemoth, now sitting on over 100 Billion dollar of cash and cash equivalents. EPS grew over 36% YoY, never ceases to amaze.

HII- EPS grew a whopping 61% from 3.27 to 5.29. This high moat company keeps chugging along.

IPGP- Faced a tough quarter due to the macroeconomic environment. EPS fell 13% YoY. They did however acquire a smaller competitor, growing market share in the robotic welding division.

LEA- Eps grew 3% YoY. Not too wonderful, but the company was able to reduce the share count considerably.

LUV- Southwest produced a steady quarter. EPS was up 22%. The share count continues to fall while paying out a decent dividend.

MSFT- Crushing earning estimates, Microsoft grew EPS by 36%. Continues to be an absolute machine.

ODFL- While last alphabetically, Old Dominion was anything but last performance wise. EPS grew a tremendous 71% YoY, a simply remarkable amount.

Overall, I think their is a lot to be encouraged about with this group of companies. They continue to compound and business continues to improve. IPGP and Lear continue to show weakness, but I remain confident in the long term viability of both companies. All others reported very strong quarters. Although the portfolio has not done well this first quarter, remaining patient will pay off eventually. Remember what Ben Graham said all those years ago, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” It is going to take time for these companies to reach their intrinsic value, but I am happy to wait.

As always, thanks for reading! Questions are encouraged and feel free to comment how your portfolio has performed this past quarter. Remember to follow along on the side.

Flooring Is Boring(That’s a Good Thing)

Warren Buffett has often said he knows within minutes whether or not he wants to buy a company. As I was looking through a stock screener yesterday, I knew in moments I wanted to own the company. Floor & Decor(FND) is amongst the fastest growing non technology stocks I have ever seen. Imagine my surprise when I saw it trading 5% lower on the day. I knew I had to pull the trigger and pounce on the opportunity.

I bought 35 shares for $32.49 a piece. I’m down to $4,166.81 in my 10k Portfolio, maybe I need to slow down. Sometimes I just can’t help it, when I see a company I like at a decent price, I act. Over time, compounding will work its magic. Let’s check out why I like Floor & Decor.

Why FND?

This company is what I would categorize as a classic Peter Lynch stock. For those unfamiliar, Peter Lynch is a famed investor who ran the Magellan Fund at Fidelity. His mutual fund performed incredibly well during the 1980s, buoyed by a bull market. He is known for picking stocks based on what he saw day to day. He would walk around the mall, tracking customer habits and then go research the financials to see if they matched up. He particularly liked small retailers that could replicate their success in one location over and over all around the country.

Floor & Decor is my kind of small retailer. According to their most recent quarterly report, the company just opened its 90th store. They intend to open 400 total stores over the next 10 years, more than quadrupling their current size. They do one thing, but do it incredibly well. They sell hard surface flooring at value prices. FND stocks a large big box store, filling about 70,000 Sq. feet with all of a customer’s possible flooring needs.

I have a bit of an edge here, during the day I work in commercial real estate. We often have to buy flooring and there is a local company I often marvel at. They sell overstock flooring at rock bottom prices. The local company is often busy and seems to turn over their inventory quickly. While I can’t invest in this local flooring success, I can invest in FND which has a similar business model. Not only is the model similar, but they are much larger and therefore able to achieve all kinds of economies of scale.

Let’s dig in to the numbers a bit. In 2013 FND sold 441 million worth of goods. That number increased to 1.385 billion in 2017 for a CAGR of 33.1% over that time period. EPS grew even faster, growing from .13 to .88. This gives us a CAGR of 61.3%. A company growing earnings at 61% a year will make shareholders incredibly rich. Obviously, this rate is unsustainable, nothing can grow this fast forever.

In fact, quarter over quarter earnings growth has slowed down to a “paltry” 35%. FND has been able to accomplish this while using little debt, only 160 million for a company with a market cap over 3 billion. I would actually prefer they finance their expansion with more debt, while financing options remain fairly cheap. The main problem with the company is that they are new and I’m not sure of managements capital allocation strategy. FND has been issuing shares, diluting existing shareholders. As the company grows, I hope they can generate more free cash and finance future growth with internal cash on hand.

The company now trades at a P/E of about 27, by far the lowest since their IPO in 2017. The stock price reached a high of 58 in April, but the stock has cratered since growth has slowed just a bit. I think this presents a tremendous buying opportunity. In the short term I’m not sure which direction the stock price will go, but over the course of many years this will be a much larger business.

Conclusion

Overall Floor & Decor is a fantastic company with a long road ahead of them. They provide value to their customers and fill a void in the market. They are growing rapidly, adding new stores and increasing same store sales. I think this is a great time to buy and shareholders will be rewarded handsomely.

As always thanks for reading and subscribe on the side! You can follow me on Instagram and Twitter @thegarpinvestor.

Tucker or Trucker?

Earlier this week, I bought 4 shares of Old Dominion Freight Line(ODFL) for $162.60 a piece or a total of $650.40. Of course since I bought shares, the stock has continued to fall. It now stands 3.5% lower than where I bought it. This always seems to happen to me, unfortunately luck doesn’t seem to run in my blood. Therefore I’ll have to keep relying on brains and long term appreciation to make my money. For those keeping track I now own 6 stocks and have $5,303.91 left in cash in my 10k Portfolio.

Why ODFL?

Founded in 1934, Old Dominion Freight Line has been around for a long time. I generally like old companies (as long as they are still growing), they have survived all kinds of different economic environments. ODFL is a less than truckload(LTL) transportation company. Rather than trucking a full capacity for one company, they pick up small loads from various customers. They then put them all together and because of their logistic mastery are able to deliver the goods quickly. They service all kinds of customers ranging from auto parts to healthcare equipment. If you need something trucked, they are happy to help.

According to their 2017 annual report, they are now the 4th largest LTL company in the country, up from 6th in 2011. Gaining market share is certainly a good thing and I hope this trend continues. One sentence from their report I particularly liked was that “Significant capital is required to create and maintain a network of service centers and a fleet of tractors and trailers. The high fixed costs and capital spending requirements for LTL motor carriers make it difficult for new start-up or small operators to effectively compete with established carriers.” This forms a bit of an oligopoly with the other large LTL companies. New competitors simply can’t compete with the incumbent businesses, due to a lack of existing infrastructure.

Now let’s take a look at some of the numbers that make ODFL so compelling. They grew revenue every single year since 1996 with the exception of the 2009-10 recession. Consistency is key, allowing me to sleep easy at night. From 2013-2017 EPS grew from 2.39 to 4.35 for a CAGR of 12.7%. While not exactly stellar over this period, growth is beginning to rise quickly. This past quarter earnings grew 67.2% over the prior year and growth is not expected to slow down anytime soon. The company is winning new jobs and growing market share. They trade around a 27.5 P/E which in a vacuum is quite high, but I find to be reasonable for a company that is growing considerably and of high quality. Remember, I am the GARP investor after all. Growth at a reasonable price is my goal.

ODFL has a ROE above 20%, meaning for every dollar of equity put into the business over the years, they are able to generate a 20%+ return. This is frankly quite stellar. They are investing heavily into CapEx every year and if they can keep up these same level of returns, investors should do quite well. The business is actually remarkably simple. They earn a generous amount of cash flow, then take that money and invest it into new trucks and fulfillment centers for logistics. With whatever cash is leftover ODFL pays a small dividend, buys back some shares and pays off whatever debt they owe. The company has a very clean balance sheet with only 839 million in liabilities, a minuscule number for a 13 billion dollar company.

Conclusion

Overall, I don’t expect ODFL to be my portfolios best performer 5 years from now. I do however expect it to be a portfolio anchor, that is meaningfully larger every single year. They are a simple business that can be relied upon. Management knows what they are doing and the stock is trading at a fair price.

As always thanks for reading and subscribe on the side! You can follow me on Instagram and Twitter @thegarpinvestor.

Value vs Growth? How About Both!

Humans love to use labels. From low carb to bridezilla, labels are used in almost every walk of life. It comes out of a need to identify and place something within a group. I myself have fallen victim to this very affliction, I purposefully called myself the GARP investor. Investors don’t stray from this norm, in fact they typically embrace it. Investors generally fall into one of two overarching categories: value or growth. Of course there are hundreds of subcategories ranging from deep value to angel investing but ultimately these are just derivatives of the main two categories with a slight spin. These two frequently find themselves at odds with one another. Members of one group can never seem to grasp the thinking of their counterparts. I personally find these arguments to be all for naught. In my opinion growth is just a factor used in determining a company’s value. They are two sides of the same coin and inextricably linked

Let’s examine what Warren Buffett had to say on the matter. In his 1992 letter to his shareholders(which you should all go ahead and read in its entirety), he tackled this very issue.

Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth.” Indeed, many investment professionals see any mixing of the two terms as a form of intellectual cross-dressing.

We view that as fuzzy thinking (in which, it must be confessed, I myself engaged some years ago). In our opinion, the two approaches are joined at the hip: Growth is always a component in the calculation of value, constituting a variable whose importance can range from negligible to enormous and whose impact can be negative as well as positive.

In addition, we think the very term “value investing” is redundant. What is “investing” if it is not the act of seeking value at least sufficient to justify the amount paid?

I don’t understand why an investor can’t be both a growth and a value investor, or rather just a regular plain vanilla investor. When making an investment, the goal should always be to find value. Growth is merely a factor in determining whether there is value in the investment or not. In fact, there can be investments of incredible value with no growth and even no value with incredible growth. This is why the price paid is so important. Let’s look at some examples to demonstrate:

Value With No Growth

Imagine a company that earns 1 million dollars a year in profit manufacturing toasters, whose fixed assets equal all of their liabilities. This company then needs to spend 1 million on capital expenditures in order to fix their machinery to sell the exact same amount of toasters. In year 2 they will make that same 1 million and spend that 1 million on fixing their machinery. There is never any cash leftover in the business. In years prior however, they were more profitable and were able to save up 5 million in the bank. Because they are unable to grow their earnings the P/E ratio has fallen to a pittance of 3. This means the whole business is only selling for 3 million. A classic value investor would buy what Buffett would call a “cigar butt” for 3 million. He would close the business, sell off the fixed assets to pay off the liabilities and walk away with the 5 million in cash. He bought it for 3, walked away with 5 and made a quick 2 million dollars, a 66% return. Unfortunately, the market is more efficient these days and such easy money is no longer there for the taking. Had you paid above 5 million for the same business, it wouldn’t be nearly as enticing. Price paid is what ultimately determines the success of an investment, even if there is no growth in the business.

Growth With No Value

First let’s look at another Buffett quote from the same letter.

Growth benefits investors only when the business in point can 
invest at incremental returns that are enticing - in other words, 
only when each dollar used to finance the growth creates over a 
dollar of long-term market value.  In the case of a low-return 
business requiring incremental funds, growth hurts the investor.

Let’s now imagine a successful company with a decision on their hands. This company has no debt, earns 200 million dollars in profit and has a billion dollars of equity. They therefore have a Return on Equity(ROE) of 20% and have a market cap of 2 billion(a 10 P/E). The company generates lots of free cash with no maintenance CapEx and doesn’t know how to spend it. They can either pay out this money for a 10% dividend, buy back 1/10 of the shares outstanding for a 10% return(buying shares back at a 10 P/E) or invest internally to try and grow the business. If we ignore the effect of taxes, paying out a dividend and buying back stock should have the same result. The question is what kind of return can the company generate by growing internally. Should the company invest that 200 million back into the business but grow earnings by any less than 20 million, it will generate less than a 10% return. Even if sales and earnings grow, this would be a poor allocation decision. While ROE is currently high at 20%, each dollar reinvested will have a Return on Incremental Capital far lower. Why dilute a great business by investing in low returns?

In this example, growing the business could actually hurt the investor. While they could maintain the status quo as a high ROE business paying a generous dividend or buying back stock, plowing money back into the business at lackluster rates of return actually loses value for an investor. Unless you can invest each dollar back into the business at high rates of return, it is best for a company to look elsewhere for allocation decisions. Just because a business is growing, doesn’t mean it is the best way to provide value to its shareholders.

In conclusion, the difference between value and growth is really just semantics. As investors we are all looking for the same thing, finding value and making a good return on our investments. There are any number of ways to do so, but ultimately it all comes down to the price paid being less than intrinsic value.

As always thanks for reading! Please subscribe on the side and you can find me on Instagram and Twitter @thegarpinvestor

I Got a Dollar

This morning I bought 7 shares of Dollar General stock for $110.57 a piece or 773.99 total. I am left with $5,949 to work with. I have invested just over 40% of my original 10K into 5 different companies. I hope to diversify a little more, making smaller positions going forward. I intend to buy somewhere between 12 and 15 companies total.

Why DG

As a dollar store, Dollar General sells cheap items providing great value to their customers. How can you make money selling things for a dollar? Well as it turns out DG is able to make a whole lot of money selling at discount prices. This past quarter they sold almost 6.5 billion dollars worth of goods and earned 407 million on those sales. By selling only a limited number of SKU’s and ordering in huge quantities the company can source products at bare bone prices. When they buy from a supplier, they are making an order for a company with over 14,000 stores. This leads to great economies of scale. Additionally, they only target small inexpensive items. Don’t expect to find a new car in a dollar general.

What separates Dollar General from their competition is their focus on location and on the customer experience. Instead of targeting large cities, they focus on small towns. Think of how Sam Walton built Wal Mart and his focus on rural america but at a micro level. These small towns aren’t large enough to support a Wal Mart or a Target and they are difficult to reach for Amazon. For Dollar General however they are moneymakers. DG builds out small stores, under 10,000 square feet and stocks them with brands consumers want. They also take great care in design. Every store is bright and welcoming, encouraging shoppers to come more often and spend more.

Financially, the company has performed superbly. While not the fastest grower, they have increased both sales and net income every year since going public in 2010. I particularly like the way Dollar General has been able to plow down their share count. At the start of 2014, DG had over 317 million shares outstanding. That number now stands at 266 million, a 16% reduction. This cutback is substantial. Each share now owns considerably more of the company, therefore a larger share of a growing stream of income.

The company is also becoming a free cash flow machine. This past year their cash flow from operations equaled 1.8 billion and had 640 million in capital expenditures, leaving them with almost 1.2 billion in free cash. They were able to use this free cash to pay a reasonable dividend, buyback a meaningful amount of shares and pay off a fair amount of debt. This free cash number should grow meaningfully over the years.

DG is now trading right around a 20 P/E. While not incredibly low, it is a fair price to pay for a strong and growing company. Remember as a GARP investor, I’m not looking for the cheapest possible company. I’m looking for a great company to hold for years into the future and if I can find such a company, I’m willing to pay a reasonable price. Dollar General has ticked my boxes and therefore I’ve decided to become an owner.

As always thanks for reading and subscribe on the side! Follow me on Twitter and Instagram @thegarpivnestor